Forecasting
Forecasting
The terms forecasting and prediction are similar but not identical.
With these definitions, we can now appreciate why weather forecasting is not called weather prediction:
Forecasting application steps
Forecasting in Excel
Obtain the Data
Saudi Open Data Platform
To download the data:
Download the data
Use a Forecasting Tool
Set the Time Series
Identification numbers.
Time series
Create the Forecast
To create a forecast:
Column C contains the predicted values.
When we create a forecast, Excel creates a new worksheet that contains both a table of the past data values and the predicted (future) data values.
Line Chart
Additional Forecast Settings
Even though linear regression is the most common and the most reliable way of modeling prediction,
Confidence Interval
Confidence Interval
Let ́s take as an example the prediction that the forecast gives us for the month of January 2023.
Graph the Data
Benefits of line charts:
Column Chart
Benefits of column charts:
The Forecast Sheet procedure gives us the opportunity to select between a Line Chart and a Column Chart.
Column chart
Customize the Graphics
To change the names of the columns:
As we can see, in the line chart that we created the horizontal axis labels are not the appropriate ones.
To change the data series:
Change the data series
Further customizing the line chart, we can add x and y axis labels.
Step 6: Analyze the Data
To prepare a new sheet:
Data Analysis
To prepare a new sheet:
Prepare a new sheet
To calculate the forecast difference:
Creating a Clustered Column Chart
To create a clustered column chart:
Confusing line chart
Clustered column chart
Stacked Column Chart
The chart that visualizes the comparison of the past tourist visits data and the forecast tourist visits data values is the following.
Stacked Column chart
It is not always the case that the recommended charts are suitable for the visualization of our information.
Read the sentences and tick True or False.
Compare the two types of charts offered by the forecast procedure in Excel. Why do we consider the line chart to be the most appropriate?
Visit the Tourism Intelligence Center of the Ministry of Tourism website (https://data.gov.sa) and download the tourist trip data for the years 2017 and 2018.
Using the Excel sheets that you created in exercise 4, make visualizations using all the charts that Excel offers. Which is the most suitable for illustrating this information? Justify your a
What is the most important part of these illustrations for making comparisons between them? Justify your answer.