2: Forecasting

Forecasting

Forecasting

The terms forecasting and prediction are similar but not identical.

With these definitions, we can now appreciate why weather forecasting is not called weather prediction:

Forecasting application steps

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Forecasting in Excel

Obtain the Data

Saudi Open Data Platform

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To download the data:

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Download the data

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Use a Forecasting Tool

Set the Time Series

Identification numbers.

Time series

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Create the Forecast

To create a forecast:

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Column C contains the predicted values.

When we create a forecast, Excel creates a new worksheet that contains both a table of the past data values and the predicted (future) data values.

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Line Chart

Additional Forecast Settings

Even though linear regression is the most common and the most reliable way of modeling prediction,

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Confidence Interval

Confidence Interval

Let ́s take as an example the prediction that the forecast gives us for the month of January 2023.

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Graph the Data

Benefits of line charts:

Column Chart

Benefits of column charts:

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The Forecast Sheet procedure gives us the opportunity to select between a Line Chart and a Column Chart.

Column chart

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Customize the Graphics

To change the names of the columns:

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As we can see, in the line chart that we created the horizontal axis labels are not the appropriate ones.

To change the data series:

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Change the data series

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Further customizing the line chart, we can add x and y axis labels.

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Step 6: Analyze the Data

To prepare a new sheet:

Data Analysis

To prepare a new sheet:

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Prepare a new sheet

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To calculate the forecast difference:

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Creating a Clustered Column Chart

To create a clustered column chart:

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Confusing line chart

Clustered column chart

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Stacked Column Chart

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The chart that visualizes the comparison of the past tourist visits data and the forecast tourist visits data values is the following.

Stacked Column chart

It is not always the case that the recommended charts are suitable for the visualization of our information.

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Read the sentences and tick True or False.

حل Read the sentences and tick True or False.
2: Forecasting

Compare the two types of charts offered by the forecast procedure in Excel. Why do we consider the line chart to be the most appropriate?

حل Compare the two types of charts offered by the forecast procedure in Excel. Why do we consider the line chart to be the most appropriate?

Visit the Tourism Intelligence Center of the Ministry of Tourism website (https://data.gov.sa) and download the tourist trip data for the years 2017 and 2018.

حل Visit the Tourism Intelligence Center of the Ministry of Tourism website (https://data.gov.sa) and download the tourist trip data for the years 2017 and 2018.
2: Forecasting

Using the Excel sheets that you created in exercise 4, make visualizations using all the charts that Excel offers. Which is the most suitable for illustrating this information? Justify your a

حل Using the Excel sheets that you created in exercise 4, make visualizations using all the charts that Excel offers. Which is the most suitable for illustrating this information? Justify your a

What is the most important part of these illustrations for making comparisons between them? Justify your answer.

حل What is the most important part of these illustrations for making comparisons between them? Justify your answer.